Gabriel C. Blain
Agronomic Institute of Campinas (IAC)
Gabriel C. Blain is a Scientific Researcher and Professor of Bioclimatology at the Agronomic Institute of Campinas (IAC; 2005-present). He is Editor-in-Chief of the Scientific Journal Bragantia (2013-present) and member of the Brazilian Panel on Climate Change (2012-present). Gabriel C. Blain graduated in agricultural engineering at the University of Campinas (2002). He also holds a Master Degree in Tropical and Subtropical Agriculture from the IAC (Dissertation Title: Adapting the Palmer Drought Severity Index and the Standardized Precipitation Index to the Climate Conditions of the state of São Paulo) and a PhD in Science from the University of São Paulo (Thesis Title: Rainfall and Air Temperature Series of the State of São Paulo: Periodicities, Probabilities, Trends and Climatic Variations).
Summary of lecture
INDICATORS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN SOUTH AMERICA
“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal […]. Each of the last
three decades has been successively warmer at the Earth’s surface than
any preceding decade since 1850”.
This is one of the most known statements of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPPC, 2013) and it clearly demands attention to the great impacts of the current Global Warming on several human activities including agriculture. On such background, this presentation will discuss the scientific basis of changes on the patterns of agrometeorological variables (e.g. air temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration) highlighting some trends that have already been observed in different regions of South America. This discussion will address the following questions: What is the greenhouse effect? Can the water vapor be regarded as a greenhouse gas? What are the signs of climate change in South America? Are those signs consistent with the IPCC’s statements? Regarding future climate conditions, what may be expected for the next decades? What are the reasons behind the low confidence in historical trend analysis of hurricane counts? By addressing those questions, we expect to provide information on the regional impacts of Global warming. We also hope that this presentation helps to mitigate the negative effects of this ongoing phenomenon on the citrus production.